LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — Incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo has a slight lead in his race for re-election, but his Democratic challenger, Attorney General Aaron Ford, is within the margin of error, according to a new poll of Nevada voters.
The survey, by Arizona-based Noble Predictive Insights, puts Lombardo at 40%, Ford at 37% with another 23% undecided.
The poll surveyed 766 registered voters, was taken between Oct. 7-13 and has a margin of error of 3.54%.
Both candidates are viewed as more positive than negative, according to the poll.
Lombardo, a former two-term Clark County sheriff and career police officer, has an overall 45% favorable rating and 38% unfavorable. Another 13% had no opinion, and just 4% of respondents said they had never heard of the incumbent governor.
Ford was rated either somewhat or very favorable by 35% of voters, with 27% saying they viewed him either somewhat or very unfavorably. Another 18% had never heard of Ford, and 19% had no opinion.
The results suggest an opportunity for Lombardo's campaign and its surrogates to define Ford for voters, including promoting news stories about his attendance at conferences and events outside the state, and the pace of his office's response to public records requests.
On the other hand, Ford's campaign has discussed his personal story, including growing up poor and taking advantage of educational programs that saw him go on to earn five degrees, including a doctorate in educational administration and a law degree.
He's the first Black person to ever serve as attorney general in Nevada.
Another factor: Ford currently faces a Democratic primary opponent in Washoe County Commission Chairwoman Alexis Hill, while no major candidate has announced a bid in the Republican primary to oppose Lombardo. The poll asked voters only about a possible general election matchup between Lombardo and Ford.
The survey undersampled Hispanic and Latino voters, who make up about 30% of the electorate, and was roughly evenly divided between Republicans, Democrats and nonpartisans.
Currently, Republicans slightly outnumber Democrats in statewide voter registration 28.4% to 28.3%, with nonpartisan voters at 36.6%. It's widely believed that some of the nonpartisan voters are people who were automatically registered at the DMV, however, and who may not actually vote on Election Day.
Republicans have 2,284 more active registered voters statewide than Democrats, out of an electorate of more than 2.1 million voters.
Although there is more than a year until the 2026 general election, the survey's numbers are consistent with recent history of close statewide elections. The average margin of victory in statewide contests in the last four election cycles is 2.91 percentage points.
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