LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — Race Day for the Las Vegas Grand Prix is only hours away, and sportsbooks across the country are optimistic about how the massive event will ignite interest in F1 betting.
Following a rocky start on Thursday night, Channel 13 spoke with Vegas Sports Infromation Network's Ben Wilson and Mikhail Miranda, F1 analysts and co-hosts of the F1 Betting Podcast. Both say that while Red Bull's Max Verstappen is the clear favorite to win, that doesn't mean a casual bettor can't find other high-value bets for Saturday night.
Verstappen's dominance of the 2023 season has been apparent, especially after he netted the Championship title in Qatar earlier this year.
"There's been 20 races so far, and Verstappen has won 17. If you want to bet on a guy who set a world record already, with only two races to go, it'll cost you a lot," Wilson said.
Currently, the money line for the Vegas Grand Prix sits at a wide gap — with Caesars Sportsbook naming Verstappen as the favorite to win (-210), followed by Charles Leclerc (+500), Lando Norris (+1400), Sergio Perez (+1600), and Lewis Hamilton (+1800).
PREVIEW: Sportsbooks hoping Las Vegas Grand Prix ignites betting interest in Formula 1
Miranda added that since the Championship wrapped up earlier this year in Qatar, all the following races have essentially become exhibition matches. "Most teams are probably already thinking about what they'll do next year."
To the untrained eye, Verstappen's dominance in the series might dampen any potential bettors' interest in the sport, and Wilson says that he doesn't blame bettors for feeling that way. "Now that we're down to the final two races, and with so much else going on with college football and the NFL this weekend, a casual bettor might consider sitting this one out."
However, Wilson credits much of the waning interest to the event's publicity, which encouraged many sportsbooks to post money lines months ahead of the race. Although the odds were clear early on, teams will still be fighting for pole positions from second to fourth on Saturday.
As we gear up for the final night of the Las Vegas Grand Prix, here are some tips to consider ahead of the big race.
Betting Tip #1: Best of the Rest
However, for those willing to dive a little deeper, Wilson recommends diving into what the sports betting industry calls "exotic props markets." For F1, this can include betting on drivers to finish in the top ten or on how many drivers with a specific team will finish in the top six.
According to Wilson, the first stop should be to look at the "Best of the Rest." These teams could end up with multiple drivers in higher pole positions — some of which may even land on the podium.
Teams to look at include McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari — all groups that had disappointing starts at the beginning of the year but have slowly improved as the series progressed. While McLaren was knocked out of the qualifying round early on, there still is a lot of optimism surrounding the team.
QUALIFYING RESULTS: Ferraris dominate qualifying; Leclerc takes pole position, Verstappen third
"McLaren specifically have gone from the bottom of the grid at the start of the year, couldn't even finish the race," Wilson said. "But they've taken their cars from a terrible shape to a legitimate contender."
Miranda is also watching Aston Martin and Williams Racing this weekend as the team attempt to claw their way up the leaderboard. "I know Williams is always going to be good with low, downforce circuits — which Las Vegas is."
Betting Tip #2: Watch the Weather
Bettors should also take note of the weather forecast for Saturday night.
"The big unknown in this race is that we have not been to Las Vegas for a Grand Prix in the last 40 years," Wilson said. "Plus, the fact this is a night race where it's going to be really cold, nobody really knows how the cars will react."
Though Wilson warns against letting the rain influence your bet, since it's hard to estimate its actual impact on any one driver, car, or team. However, Miranda believes the rain could pose a great threat to many teams, depending on how heavy the rain will be.
"Sometimes, the rain doesn't fall evenly on the track, leaving some of the track dry while the rest is wet," Miranda said. "Plus, wet tires will change a driver's strategy and how they approach the track."
Miranda says, in case of heavy rain on Saturday night, keep your eye on Haas Racing, who could potentially slip into the top six.
Betting Tip #3: Look at the "Track" Record
Friday night's qualifying round would see Ferarri, Red Bull, and Mercedes drivers emerge in the top three pole positions, with Ferrari's Charles LeClerc emerging as the pole-sitter.
The three previous practice rounds were a good opportunity for drivers to familiarize themselves with the track and develop potential strategies for the race. Qualifying, however, is a good place to start for potential bettors.
"Drivers have practices just to familiarize themselves with the track and how they want to use their tires optimally," Wilson said. "[Qualifying] is great for seeing how the drivers perform... You'll get a really good time of just that one-lap pace, which strips away all the general race strategy."
Qualifying rounds involve one lap, which will demonstrate each vehicle's speed and turning capacity.
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Miranda added, "It is going to come down to how good is your engine, how good is your reliability, and how easy do those mix? It has to be the perfect marriage of every single department to get the absolute max out of the car."
Ferrari would also emerge from qualifying with five drivers in the top 10, allowing the team a heavy presence on the grid during Race Day.
While Ferrari's Leclerc secured the fasted time in the qualifying round, his teammate, Carlos Sainz Jr. — whose vehicle was severely damaged by a loose valve cover during the first practice session — was the second fastest overall, despite coming in 12th place.
But fast lap paces don't come without warnings, especially for teams looking to avoid major upsets.
"Especially with higher speeds, if the drivers aren't careful, you could see a lot of accidents and a lot of red flags and yellow flags," Miranda said. "So some drivers will need to be on the lookout — especially in the Sphere section of the circuit."
Overall, Wilson says if you want to make money on Saturday night, you have to be committed to paying attention and doing research. "There will be a lot of folks who will just throw out a lot of money on long shots to have fun. But if you want actually to have success, this is a race that I really believe you have to be paying attention to."
For the more seasoned bettor or F1 fan, Miranda says, "Listen to your gut."
He continued, "If you have been watching F1 this entire season and you think Carlos Sainz will be in the top six, don't listen to the noise around you."
Wilson added, "Overall, it's going to be a pretty special spectacle just to see the Las Vegas Strip on the global stage."
