LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — Several experts are issuing warnings about the future of the Colorado River, saying things are continuing to slide "toward system crash."
Those experts include Anne Castle, the former Assistant Secretary for Water and Science with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Jack Schmidt, the Director of the Center for Colorado River Studies at Utah State University, and Eric Kuhn, retired General Manager for the Colorado River Water Conservation District.
According to their most recent paper, if the Colorado River Basin experiences another dry year, it is likely that "reasonably accessible storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead would be mostly depleted, even if consumptive uses and losses are at or near historic lows. Run-of-the-river operations would shortly ensue. This would be an outcome with devastating consequences."
Read the full paper below
Based on their projections, it's possible there could be a gap of 2.59 million acre feet between natural supply and basin use, which could "risk a crash of the Basin's water storage system."
They define a system crash as a situation where the major reservoirs drop to elevations that risk damage to dam infrastructure and are operating as "run-of-the-river" facilities, like hydropower facilities. They add that while many cities may not run dry due to storing water through other means, a system crash would have a significant impact on agriculture.
On the other hand, if we have a wet year, experts say the amount of water we receive would only provide a one or two-year cushion.
"It will not reverse the ratchet effect. The ongoing water supply crisis would remain," the paper reads in part. "In either case, the reservoir system no longer has supply available to sustain current levels of Colorado River system consumption."
WATCH: Experts warn Colorado River system is heading toward 'water bankruptcy'
In April, the Bureau of Reclamation announced several changes, including adding 2.48 million acre feet of water to Lake Powell by moving water from the upstream Flaming Gorge Reservoir and by reducing releases to Lake Powell.
Agency officials also stated they intend to reduce the annual release volume from Lake Powell to Lake Mead by 1.48 million acre feet through September 2026, which will "accelerate the downstream decline of Lake Mead."
It also means there is the potential for up to an additional 40% reduction to Hoover Dam's hydropower generating capacity as early as this fall. At Lake Mead National Recreation Area, reduced water levels may further limit boating access, and at the Grand Canyon, lower flow rates will affect rafting conditions and fishing may be more challenging.
Agency officials stated they are collaborating on ways to conserve water at Lake Mead to maintain current water levels.
While federal officials work on proposed future agreements for how the Colorado River water is allocated, Nevada, California and Arizona negotiators have proposed several options for the Bureau of Reclamation to consider.
Last week, I also told you how those three states are also looking at future water-sharing options. One option being discussed is San Diego potentially selling their allocation of Colorado River water to cities that need it. San Diego gets up to 10% of their water from a desalination plant in Carlsbad, and they have suggested using more of that water instead of river water.
WATCH | Nevada, California, Arizona exploring Colorado River water sharing options:
Why aren't more coastal states looking into desalination?
"Every type of water supply has trade-offs. Desalination is expensive. It's very energy-intensive. There's impacts to marine systems and so we also need to watch out for that," said Debra Perrone, an associate professor of environmental studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara. "I think more generally, we need to be thinking about how that desal water fits into the broader water portfolio that we have. On the positive side, it means we're not depleting our groundwater resources and we're not taking water out of rivers, which is great for other beneficial uses."
Creative solutions are one way to help support the whole Colorado River system.
"Impacts of drought really ripple across sectors pretty quickly. We have to remember that our river systems, our water systems are really interdependent," said Elizabeth Koebele, an associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Reno. "I think, as a result of this, and something we can continue to leverage more, is promoting unexpected partnerships."
Koebele said one area where water efficiency can improve is agriculture.
"In agriculture, we have more senior water rights. They're more likely safe in times of drought and there has, perhaps, been less incentive in the agriculture sector to think about efficiency. It's not that it doesn't happen," Koebele said. "Water use in agriculture in the West is really important. We grow a lot of crops. One of the things that is kind of a common line is if you're eating leafy greens in the wintertime in the West, they were probably grown in Yuma, Arizona, where it's nice and warm and we grow our salad there in winter. Plenty of fruits and nuts and all of these other really important crops grow in the Western U.S. That said, about 55% of our water use also goes to growing alfalfa hay, essentially feed for cattle, and I think there's a lot of room, specifically in that area, to make sure that our water is being used really efficiently."
The seven states that rely on Colorado River water and the Bureau of Reclamation have until Oct. 1 to reach new operating guidelines because that's when the new water year starts.
"This isn't something that's going to go away. And so, we need to really take a long-term perspective when we think about adaptation and changing our systems," Koebele said. "There are also sort of shifts in our socioeconomic systems and our value systems and things that have come up in these conversations that I think we need to consider because this hazard is not something that is going to go away in a lot of places."