LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — Las Vegas has adapted to living with less water — as a 7% cut in Nevada's Colorado River supply continues into next year — but if water levels continue to drop, more of the West may be forced to follow suit.
"I do notice the difference of the water level being down," said one visitor to Lake Mead during the recent three-day weekend.
WATCH: What could a new water agreement look like?
Locals who go to Boulder Beach are likely used to seeing the white "bathtub ring" around the shoreline, an indicator of years of decline and drought within the Colorado River system.
But even more water loss is ahead.
Projections from the latest Bureau of Reclamation 24-Month Study show Lake Mead could reach its lowest levels ever within just two years.
Approaching a critical deadline
Guidelines governing Colorado River water use between seven states — Nevada, Arizona, California, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado and Wyoming — expire next year, and at this time, no replacement plan is ready.
Legal negotiations on that plan continue behind closed doors and out of the public eye, but more information is expected in the coming months.
"The states have until early November to be able to put a negotiated plan together to show how the river system will be operated, if there are additional reductions in water use, where those reductions will come from," said Bronson Mack, spokesperson for the Southern Nevada Water Authority.
But what could that plan look like?
"Most currently, the states are looking at a supply-driven concept," Mack said. "The supply-driven concept takes a look at the historical flows of the river, it's about three years of historical flows, and at least in concept would then identify, based on those flows, how much water would be available to each of those states."
Mack told Channel 13, a "supply-driven" solution could be positive for the changing Colorado River.
"Well, it's really a good thing, at least as it is proposed, for all of the seven states. It will provide for further reductions in water use rather than just taking water out of storage supplies that you have within Lake Mead. It just really allows the states to be more responsive to the actual conditions that we are seeing in the river," Mack said.
As watchdog groups have noted, the regional negotiations haven't been an easy process.
"They need to get this done for the reasons like we saw on that 24-month study, which is that things can get really bad really quick," said John Berggren, Regional Policy Manager for Western Resource Advocates, a Colorado-based organization tracking the process closely.
"Unless we have a proactive plan in place, you're gonna be looking at some pretty scary situations," Berggren continued, "I'm glad that they're kind of coalescing around that type of [supply-driven] framework, but the devil's in the details."
Berggren told Channel 13 that while he's encouraged to learn the basin states are getting closer to consensus, questions still remain.
"What is the exact percentage of this natural flow that the upper basin will deliver to the lower basin, and what conditions and all those other things? That's where the conversation is getting bogged down, and that's the real challenge," Berggren said.
Water security on the minds of local officials
Despite what's agreed to on paper, experts warn that climate change, drought, and overuse will continue to put pressure on the water system.
However, SNWA's Bronson Mack says Southern Nevada is prepared.
"The future of the Colorado River basin is going to be warmer, it is going to be drier, and this is why our community has been on this adaptation journey for the past 20 years," Mack said.
Mack said that even if Lake Mead reached "dead pool" levels, Las Vegas would still have water due to infrastructure investments.
"With our deep water intake and low lake level pumping station, our community is able to access its water supply at any lake levels. It's that infrastructure coupled with our water conservation programs and our water management activities that make Southern Nevada the most water secure community on the Colorado River," Mack said.
