LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — As the Las Vegas Raiders look ahead to the 2026 NFL draft, early betting markets are already shaping the conversation around the No. 1 overall pick.
Fernando Mendoza has emerged as the clear favorite, according to Brandon Kennedy, director of race and sport at Durango Casino.
Kennedy pointed to Mendoza’s accolades as a major reason he sits atop draft boards.
“He won the Heisman, so he deserves to be the number one favorite,” Kennedy said, adding that the Raiders’ needs also factor heavily into the discussion. “Desperate need of a quarterback, also desperate need of a coach.”
Mendoza’s position as the presumptive No. 1 pick was further solidified Wednesday when Oregon quarterback Dante Moore announced on ESPN’s SportsCenter that he will return to school for the 2026 season, opting out of the upcoming draft. Moore had been viewed as a potential top selection, and his decision effectively narrowed the quarterback field at the top of the class.
Holding the No. 1 pick after a 3–14 season gives Las Vegas flexibility, whether that means selecting a franchise quarterback or trading back to stockpile assets.
“I think the Raiders definitely need some draft capital, whether that’s in future drafts or this year,” Kennedy said. “It could go either way. It’s really, when you have the No. 1 pick, there’s nobody picking in front of you, so you get to do whatever you want.”
If the decision were made today, Kennedy said he expects the Raiders to stay put.
“I’m taking Fernando Mendoza, No. 1 overall. I think the Raiders keep it,” he said. “I don’t think they want to gamble, although we’re in the city of gambling.”
Kennedy also emphasized why Mendoza is viewed as a low-risk option at the top of the draft, pointing to his demeanor and preparation off the field.
Kennedy pointed to Mendoza’s approach off the field as part of his appeal, noting that in interviews the quarterback has said YouTube and LinkedIn are the only apps on his phone. “This kid is all football, all business,” Kennedy said. “He was at Cal Berkeley before this — really smart kid.”
That mindset, Kennedy said, could resonate during the pre-draft process.
“I think everybody’s going to be really thrilled with his football knowledge when he does his draft interviews,” he said. “I think he’s just a good kid and everybody’s really looking forward to bringing him into their facility.”
For a Raiders fan base coming off a difficult season, Kennedy said the No. 1 pick has already created optimism.
“Number one pick creates a lot of hype and a lot of hope for the fan base,” he said. “You control your own destiny. The Raiders are on the clock now. I think they’re ready to go. I think they’re ready to take a quarterback.”
