LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — "It shall be the mandatory duty of the Legislature at its first session after the taking of the decennial census of the United States in the year 1950, and after each subsequent decennial census, to fix by law the number of Senators and Assemblymen, and apportion them among the several counties of the State, or among legislative districts which be established by law, according to the number of inhabitants in them, respectively." — Art. 4, §6, cl. 2 of the Nevada Constitution
WATCH | Looking at Nevada's redistricting rumbles amid the Texas-California debate
As Texas lawmakers fight over a mid-decade redistricting plan aimed at squeezing a few more Republican seats from the Lone Star State — and increasing the GOP majority in Congress — their actions threaten to touch off a nationwide redistricting race.
Already, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has said he will ask voters to suspend the use of the state's decade-old independent redistricting commission and redraw the Golden State's lines in an attempt to thwart any Republican gains in Texas.
And other states have indicated they may consider doing the same.
Here in Nevada, no mid-decade redistricting has ever been attempted. But that doesn't mean the state hasn't seen its share of redistricting drama on both sides of the aisle. And while repeated attempts to turn redistricting over to an independent commission here have failed, one proponent of the idea says she'll try again this year.
"It's going to be worse," predicts Sondra Cosgrove, a College of Southern Nevada history professor, of the process Texas started. "I mean, literally, the parties are trying to figure out how to cheat better than the other party."
Although drawing political maps may seem Byzantine to most voters, it has a big impact when people go to the polls, Cosgrove said.
"It directly impacts your representation," she said. "And so if you're feeling frustrated because you don't feel that the government represents you and your interests, it's because of gerrymandering, it's because they don't have to ask for your vote."
David Damore, a UNLV political science professor and executive director of the Lindy Institute and Brookings Mountain West, says the tendency to draw so-called safe seats for elected officials leads to increased partisanship.
"Who really gets empowered in this, what voters?" Damore asked. "And it's going to be primary voters, right? Because you essentially make more and more districts safe for one party, the real competition becomes the primary. We know that primary voters tend to be a little more ideological, and that candidates are going to move away from the center where most voters are located."
Long history in Nevada
Over the last 30 years, Nevada has seen redistricting overseen by both Republicans and Democrats.
In 2001, with the GOP in control of the state Senate, lawmakers failed to finish redistricting by the end of the regular session, and then-Gov. Kenny Guinn had to call a special session to get the job done.
The plan created the 3rd Congressional District, which was designed to be close in registration. It was won in the 2002 election by then-state Sen. Jon Porter, R-Clark County, but has swung back and forth between Republicans and Democrats ever since. Currently, Democrat Susie Lee is the incumbent.
In 2011, the Legislature was controlled by Democrats, who passed a plan that was vetoed by then-Gov. Brian Sandoval, a Republican. Rather than call a special session, lawmakers saw the matter go to court, where a Carson City District Court judge appointed three special masters to draw new lines, including a then brand-new 4th Congressional District.
Those lines ended up favoring Democrats.
But in 2014, Republicans won the governor's mansion, all constitutional offices, three of four congressional seats and both houses of the Legislature. In the 2015 session, they inserted a rule that would have allowed for a Texas-style, mid-decade redistricting to take place.
But the tactic was intended more as an intimidation ploy than a serious attempt to redraw lines to be more favorable to the GOP, and a formal plan was never introduced. Democrats re-took the Legislature in 2016, and the governor's mansion in 2018.
In 2021, with Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak and a Democrat-controlled Legislature in place, Democrats approved maps that gave them a shot at keeping all three Southern Nevada congressional seats and legislative majorities.
Ironically, the loudest protests came from progressives and Rep. Dina Titus, who objected that her safe 1st District seat in the urban core was expanded to include more Republican parts of Henderson and Boulder City. Still, Titus won the 2022 and 2024 elections.
Watching the numbers
So is Nevada gerrymandered? Republicans argue yes, especially given the statewide active-voter registration advantage for Democrats is currently just 3,775 voters, and Democrats control three constitutional offices and have near-supermajorities in both houses of the Legislature. (The largest group by registration is nonpartisans, with 771,455 active registered voters statewide.)
But Damore notes that some of the Democratic advantage depends on where people live. Here in population-rich Clark County, Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 88,000 active registered voters.
"You also have to consider how those constituencies distribute themselves geographically," he said. "So we know in the urban core, in the most dense parts of Clark County, those tend to be overwhelmingly Democrat. Those districts, no matter how you draw them, are going to be Democrat."
Republicans, he said, are spread more thinly, often in suburbs and especially in rural areas. There are fewer safe Republican seats as a result, and in some cases, much larger districts. (Senate District 19, for example, stretches from the Idaho border in the north to Primm at the California state line in the south.)
Cosgrove sees gerrymandering in the current plan, and says it's proof Nevada needs an independent redistricting commission. In her mind, the commission would:
- Have one member each appointed by the majority and minority leaders of the Legislature, producing two Republicans and two Democrats.
- Allows those members to appoint three additional people who are nonpartisans or members of third parties.
- Require five votes to approve any redistricting plan.
- Be subject to the Open Meeting Law and Public Records Law, so the public could attend meetings and see the data on which maps are based.
- Be required to consider maps submitted by the public.
Damore said elected officials aren't likely to support that proposal.
"Generally, the politicians hate the redistricting commissions for the reason that they lose control," he said. "They think that the map drawers aren't going to know as much as they do. But obviously the idea is, if the goal of people wanting neutral districts, competitive districts that are going to be responsive, you're more likely to get it through that process than by letting the politicians pick their voters."
That's one reason why political insiders in Nevada have resisted Cosgrove's idea three times in the past. In the most recent case, they sued, saying the initiative she filed would require spending state money, and the measure didn't specify a funding source, as required by Article 19 of the state constitution.
Cosgrove said she'd use shame as a weapon this time around.
"Oh, you watch, because if they want to, on one hand, put a halo over their heads about not suppressing voters, about respecting voters, and all that, I'm going to fight them tooth and nail to say, 'Don't you dare sue us this time. You give the voters the ability to have a discussion about this and vote for it,'" she said. "And if you don't and you take me into court, I'm going to contact every national news organization focused on Texas and say, 'You know what, you should come and see what they did in Nevada, because our maps are gerrymandered here, too.'"
Cosgrove isn't alone in saying so. Although the Princeton University Gerrymandering Project gave Nevada's 2021 state Senate maps a "B" grade, researchers gave the state an "F" for its congressional maps for favoring Democrats.
Cosgrove said she will file the independent commission initiative next month, along with another one to allow any voter regardless of registration to vote in any primary election. (A similar ballot measure passed in 2022 but was rejected in 2024; however that initiative also included a plan to implement ranked choice voting.)
If either measure makes it to the ballot, it would have to be approved at the general election in 2026 and 2028 before going into effect before the 2030 census.
In the meantime, Damore warns that Texas may come to regret its decision. In drawing more Republican-friendly districts, they may make existing GOP districts more competitive, which makes incumbents more vulnerable.
"If you make a lot of districts competitive and more responsive to the short-term political influences, you have a lot more turnover, and this matters in the U.S Congress probably more than a state house, but seniority dominates in the U.S. Congress," he said.
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