American consumers are paying for the overwhelming majority of tariffs being implemented by the Trump administration, new research from the Kiel Institute indicates.
The report found that Americans are paying 96% of the cost of the tariffs, while foreign exporters are absorbing about 4%. The Kiel Institute said it analyzed over 25 million shipment records from over $4 trillion in U.S. imports.
The report indicated that U.S. customs revenue increased by $200 billion due to tariffs. The report also found that pre-tax export values did not decline. Instead, the number of items being imported collapsed.
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"The tariffs are an own goal," says Julian Hinz, research director at the Kiel Institute and one of the authors of the study. "The claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs is a myth. The data show the opposite: Americans are footing the bill."
President Donald Trump has touted tariffs as a way to raise revenue for the U.S. government while rebuilding the nation's manufacturing industry.
But it appears tariffs did not have an immediate impact on manufacturing jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. lost 68,000 manufacturing jobs in 2025.
Yale University’s Budget Lab issued a November 2025 report, estimating tariffs add about $1,400 to annual expenses for the median U.S. household, with costs varying by income level. Clothing, electronics and metal goods tend to be among the most impacted categories, according to Yale.
