More than two months after the United States launched an attack on Iran, gas prices have risen more than $1.50 nationwide — and experts say they could climb higher in the coming weeks.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the cost of a gallon of gas could exceed $5 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The U.S. only briefly hit $5 gas in 2022, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, with prices peaking at a record $5.02 a gallon.
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This spike comes as the busy summer travel season approaches.
De Haan said he expects prices could top $5 in June, citing oil prices above $100 per barrel and rising costs for reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB). RBOB is a cleaner‑burning gasoline base that’s mixed with additives such as ethanol before being sold at the pump.
Iran’s blockade of tanker traffic through the strait has frustrated Washington and contributed to a sharp rise in global energy prices. About 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait under normal conditions.
Last week, U.S. forces attempted to escort tankers through part of the strait but abandoned the operation less than two days later.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts have also warned that $5 gas is possible this summer.
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“The risk of $5 gasoline can no longer be dismissed,” the analysts wrote, according to Bloomberg. “The timing could hardly be worse. The U.S. driving season unofficially begins with Memorial Day at the end of May.”
As of Tuesday, the national average price of a gallon of gas was $4.50.
Former President Donald Trump suggested the U.S. could suspend the federal gas tax to ease prices. The tax adds 18.4 cents per gallon and helps fund the Highway Trust Fund.
