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'Navigating through fog': Consumer confidence sours despite economy remaining resilient

Economist Justin Wolfers says it's hard to make sense of the current state of the economy given uncertain trade policies.
'Navigating through fog': Consumer confidence sours despite economy remaining resilient
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U.S. consumer confidence fell in June, according to preliminary data out Tuesday from The Conference Board.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 93 in June, down from 98.4 in May.

"The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers' assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration," said Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at The Conference Board.

Tariffs and inflation remain top of mind for consumers. There was a slight uptick in the number of consumers referencing geopolitics and social unrest amid economic worries, but it was not a leading factor.

Data for the survey was collected until June 18, before the U.S. became involved in the conflict with Iran.

Despite consumer sentiment declining, other economic indicators point to an economy that's stayed resilient.

Hiring slowed in May, but the economy still added 139,000 jobs last month, and unemployment remains historically low at 4.2%.

RELATED STORY | US employers added 139,000 jobs in May despite uncertainty over trade wars

"Sometimes, how people feel doesn't translate to how they behave," said Phillip Powell, the executive director at the Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University. "How people behave is typically a little bit more rational and long-term, and this is why we're seeing some resilience in the American economy right now."

There's continued uncertainty about what's next for the economy due to unpredictable White House trade policies. That means it's hard to know what to make of soft data, like consumer sentiment surveys, and hard data, like labor market figures, according to Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan.

"Unfortunately, I think for much of 2025, we're going to be navigating through fog," Wolfers said. "The hard data are distorted, and the soft data are unreliable, and it's very hard to know what the underlying pace of growth is."