LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — Clark County's march to a population of three million people is expected to take a decade longer than originally projected, according to UNLV's Center for Business and Economic Research.
Last year, CBER projected the county would reach that mark by 2045, but its 2026 forecast pushes that milestone back to 2055, showing a slower long-term growth outlook for Southern Nevada.
The county is expected to add around 204,000 residents between 2026 and 2036 — down from the 347,000 residents in last year's forecast over a comparable period.
Southern Nevada public agencies use the forecast to plan for infrastructure, such as water and transportation, according to CBER.
"For more than 50 years, Clark County grew far faster than the national average. That gap is closing," CBER said in a press release Wednesday. "CBER now projects the county’s annual growth rate will fall from 1.6 percent in 2026 to about 0.6 percent in 2029, then hold relatively steady through 2060."
One of the main factors behind the expected slowdown in growth is that the county's "natural change" is projected to turn negative in 2032, meaning there is expected to be more deaths than births.
Growth after that will depend on more residents moving in than moving out, CBER said, but net migration is expected to be lower than in previous outlooks. According to the forecast, a larger share of people who do move here are retirees. Additionally, Clark County's birth rates run below the national average, according to CBER.
"Policymakers, businesses, and community leaders should prepare for a world where population growth is not a given, but instead earned through long-term planning and investment in jobs, education and workforce training, healthcare, and other features which contribute to our quality of life," Andrew Woods, director of CBER, said.
The forecast estimates the county's population will reach about 2.77 million by 2040, surpass 3 million in 2055 and approach 3.08 million by 2060.
Despite slower population growth, the region's economy is expected to continue expanding.
CBER projects Clark County will add 17,000 jobs in 2026 and another 20,000 in 2027, with slower hiring in 2028 and 2029 before growth accelerates again in 2030. The rebound is expected to be supported by additional hotel development and the anticipated opening of Bally's Las Vegas next to the Athletics' planned ballpark on the Strip.
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Between 2026 and 2036, the county is projected to add about 117,000 jobs, with the largest gains in accommodation and food services, health care and social assistance, and transportation and warehousing.
The report also forecasts real gross domestic product will increase from about $200.8 billion in 2026 to $370.5 billion by 2060, while real GDP per capita is expected to rise from roughly $80,000 to more than $120,000 over the same period.
CBER has produced Clark County's annual long-term population forecast since 1996 in partnership with the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada, the Southern Nevada Water Authority and other regional forecasting partners. The report is used by public agencies, businesses and community organizations to guide long-term planning and investment.
To view the full forecast, click HERE.
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