The National Retail Federation predicts November and December sales will grow more than 4% from last year, topping $1 trillion.
But shoppers are expected to be selective, comparing prices and hunting for deals as inflation and high energy costs squeeze household budgets.
The pressure isn’t equal. Lower-income households could have less room to spend, especially after months of high gas prices.
RELATED STORY | Social Security checks are getting their biggest raise since 2023. Inflation may eat it anyway
“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”
At 4.2%, the projected increase in holiday spending would slightly outpace inflation, which stood at 3.7% in September.
The NRF said it expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with last year’s estimated 356,000. The organization said employers are expected to be cautious about hiring this holiday season because of rising expenses, including higher gas and diesel prices.
RELATED STORY | US inflation climbs as gas, clothing, and airfares get more expensive
