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Real estate experts predicting next recession in 2020 but say housing market won't be the cause

Posted: 11:28 PM, Jul 25, 2019
Updated: 2019-07-26 11:14:31-04

LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — Working in real estate his entire career, broker and owner of Icon Realty Scott Pharris remembers the great recession all too well.

"It was tough. It was tough back then,” said Pharris. “We really had to hustle. The market just tanked."

Zillow, the online real estate database company, performed a Home Price Expectations Survey . In that quarterly survey, they asked more than 100 real estate economists and experts to give predictions about the U.S. housing market and their expectations for the next recession.

Half of those surveyed said the next recession will start in 2020. But they agreed 2020 will be different. They don't believe the slowdown in the housing market will be the cause.

HISTORY: A look at the housing bubble burst and long-term impact on Las Vegas

"The market is in a much healthier place it seems like this time than it was last time,” Pharris said.

"It's not that recession we saw 10 years ago,” said Anna Usma. “It’s definitely not the same market we had last year, but home prices are keeping up with what the values are. They are not depreciating as rapidly as we have seen in the past."

Usma is with online real estate company Opendoor. She said with the market softening homes might sit on the market longer and iBuying which is when an online company offers you cash for your home might become more appealing to some sellers.

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"This option wasn’t available 10 years ago,” said Usma. “It’s a good solution for a softening market where your house might sit on the market for a longer period of time."

Both agree that despite recession fears right now is a good time for buyers.

"Buyers are going to have a little bit more sway in the transactions that we are seeing. Sellers are going to be a little more negotiable,” Pharris said.

“There's no more bidding wars,” said Usma. “This time last year people were bidding for homes buyers were not able to purchase their house."

So, if a housing collapse isn't the issue what do all those experts think will cause the next recession? Here's their top predictions: trade policy, stock market correction or geopolitical crisis.