Local News


KTNV/RASMUSSEN POLL: Poll shows post-DNC narrow lead for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump

Posted at 12:25 PM, Aug 01, 2016
and last updated 2016-08-02 13:34:59-04

Following last week’s Democratic National Convention, a new KTNV-TV 13 Action News/Rasmussen Reports poll shows Hillary Clinton emerging with a narrow lead in Nevada over Donald Trump.

Clinton holds a 41 to 40 percent lead over Trump, according to a poll of 750 likely voters taken between July 29 and 31. Ten percent of voters polled are supporting Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, with five percent undecided and four percent backing another candidate.

Nevada’s closely-watched Senate race also shows signs of tightening up, with Republican Joe Heck leading Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto by a narrow 42 to 41 percent margin, with 11 percent of voters still undecided.

The results indicate a positive post-convention bump for the Democrats, as a previous KTNV-TV 13 Action News/Rasmussen Reports poll taken last week after the Republican National Convention showed Trump and Heck with larger leads in Nevada. Cortez Masto did not attend the convention.

Rasmussen polls historically tilt Republican, according to a FiveThirtyEight ranking of polling groups.

Voters still have strong negative opinions of both Trump and Clinton, with both candidates seeing double digit negative approval ratings. Forty-two percent of voters hold a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Trump, with 55 percent saying they hold a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion.

It’s a similar case for Clinton, with 41 percent of voters in support and fifty-seven percent opposed to the former Secretary of State. Johnson has a 27 to 28 favorable-unfavorable split among voters, with 45 percent of poll respondents saying they’re unsure or don’t know who he is.

Trump and Clinton supporters still largely fall into the same demographic categories as previous poll results. Trump commands leads among men, white voters and those over 40, while Clinton attracts a majority of black and Hispanic voters, self-identified moderates and female voters.

Clinton holds a 44 to 38 percent lead over Trump in populous Clark County, though Trump leads in Washoe County by a 44 to 39 percent margin and in the rest of the state by a 44 to 29 percent margin.

Nevada’s highly competitive Senate race to replace outgoing U.S. Sen. Harry Reid shows a neck and neck race between Heck and Cortez Masto.

Heck leads the race by a 42 to 41 margin, with 11 percent of voters undecided. Last week’s KTNV-TV 13 Action News/Rasmussen Reports poll showed Heck with a nine-point lead over Cortez Masto.

Voters hold generally favorable views of the two major Senate candidates —  Heck has a 45 to 41 percent favorability split, with voters viewing Cortez Masto with a similar 43 to 42 percent split.

Approval ratings for President Barack Obama and Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval remain largely unchanged from last week.

51 percent of Nevada voters polled approve of the president, with 47 percent disapproved. Sandoval, a Republican, remains widely popular with 62 percent of voters approving and 30 percent disapproved.

The full crosstabs and demographic breakdown of the poll are available here.

The 13 Action News/Rasmussen Reports has a four percent margin of error, with 95 percent level of confidence. The poll was conducted using a mix of 75 percent automated voice polling and 25 percent online responses.

KTNV will release additional polling results on the popularity of the state’s Educational Savings Accounts program and two ballot measures deregulating the state’s energy market and restoring net metering rates for rooftop solar customers over the coming days.