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Exclusive: KTNV/Rasmussen poll shows Trump, Heck with post GOP-convention leads in Nevada

Posted at 1:24 PM, Jul 25, 2016
and last updated 2016-07-25 23:56:00-04

Donald Trump holds a modest lead over Hillary Clinton in Nevada, according to a new KTNV-TV 13 Action News/Rasmussen Reports poll.

The poll of 750 likely voters shows the Republican presidential candidate leading Clinton by 43 to 38 percent in Nevada, with eight percent supporting Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson.

The KTNV-TV 13 Action News/Rasmussen Reports also reports Republican Senate candidate Joe Heck with a nine point lead over his Democratic opponent, Catherine Cortez Masto.

The poll was conducted by Rasmussen Reports between July 22 and 24, immediately following the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio. Rasmussen historically has a Republican bias, according to a FiveThirtyEight ranking of polling groups.

Clinton leads Trump with women, young voters, and Hispanics, while Trump commands a majority of voters over 65, men and white voters.

Voters polled appear to have set strong opinions about the two candidates, with only a tiny percentage not having an opinion of either presidential hopeful.

Forty-six percent says they have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Trump, and 52 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican candidate.

The KTNV-TV 13 Action News/Rasmussen Reports poll shows higher negatives for Clinton: 60 percent of voters polled reported having a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of the former Secretary of State, with 38 percent reporting a favorable opinion of the Democrat.

More voters reported having a “very unfavorable” opinion of Clinton (48 percent) than Trump (43 percent). Overall, seven percent of voters polled are still unsure of which candidate to support, and four percent plan to support a different candidate.

In Nevada’s closely-watched Senate race, the KTNV-TV 13 Action News/Rasmussen Reports poll reports Heck leading Catherine Cortez Masto in the race to replace outgoing Sen. Harry Reid.

Likely voters support Heck by a 46 to 37 margin over Cortez Masto, with 12 percent of voters undecided and five percent saying they'll support a different candidate.

Cortez Masto holds leads among Hispanic and black voters, but the poll shows Heck with leads in most major demographic groups, including a 43 to 37 lead in Democrat-leaning Clark County.

Voters appear to hold Heck, a six-year Republican congressman, in high regard: 50 percent report a favorable opinion, with 36 percent saying they have an unfavorable opinion.

Cortez Masto, a former state Attorney General, has lower approval ratings, with 38 percent saying they have a favorable opinion and 45 percent reporting an unfavorable opinion of the Democrat.

Other statewide polling shows a tighter contest between the two Senate candidates, including a Monmouth poll showing Heck with a narrower 42-40 advantage over Cortez Masto.

The 13 Action News/Rasmussen Reports poll also indicates voters view President Barack Obama and Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval favorably.

Fifty percent of voters reported having a favorable opinion of Obama, while 48 percent had an unfavorable view of the president.

Sandoval, who won re-election by a huge margin in 2014, is favored by 61 percent of Nevada voters polled, with 29 percent having an unfavorable opinion.

The poll largely mirrored Nevada’s likely demographic turnout for November. Sixty-three percent of respondents were in Clark County, and the respondents generally reflected party breakdown (38 percent Democratic, 30 percent Republican).

A full demographic breakdown of polling results is available here.

The 13 Action News/Rasmussen Reports has a four percent margin of error, with 95 percent level of confidence. The poll was conducted using a mix of 75 percent automated voice polling and 25 percent online responses.

KTNV will release additional polling results, including new information on ballot questions for recreational marijuana, universal gun background checks and public financing of a possible NFL stadium over the next few days.